Co-authored by Adam Strochak
At the beginning of the year, we asked our readers to gaze into their crystal balls and tell us what would happen in 2011. We figured if anyone could predict the direction of key economic indicators in the restructuring world, it would be you. The books are now closed on 2011 and it’s time to see how predictions stacked up against actual performance.
As was true with just about everything in 2011, volatility was the keyword. For the most part, our survey results were close to actual performance on key metrics, like the number of large chapter 11 filings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On interest rates, however, predictions missed by a mile, with none of our 125 respondents – not a single one, nada, zip, zilch, zero – correctly predicting that at year end the yield on a 10-year T-bill would be below 2%. We all had that one totally wrong. The conventional wisdom at the start of 2011 was that interest rates would rise to stave off inflation that might result from the low cost of borrowing, but growth expectations have not gone according to plan, and the low interest rate environment is still with us for the time being.
Over half of our readers correctly called the number of jumbo chapter 11 cases set to file in 2011, but only just, with ten super mega cases filing (and six of those coming in the last quarter of the year). Approximately 40% of our readers correctly called the trailing 12-month global speculative grade default rate, which ended the year at 2.05% according to Standard & Poor’s. Half of our readers correctly called what the Dow Jones Industrial Average would end the year at, with the index clocking in at a predictable 12,217.
When determining what industries would face the most financial distress in 2011, however, there were some surprising results. Readers overwhelmingly expected distress in the commercial real estate industry, while only two companies with liabilities over $100 million filed for chapter 11 in that industry in 2011. Homebuilding was another sector expected to face significant trouble, and again, only four companies with liabilities over $100 million sought bankruptcy court protection. On the flip side, the manufacturing, media/communications/publishing and retail sectors each chalked up a large number of chapter 11 filings, which while understandable in hindsight, was not foreseeable at the start of 2011.
On behalf of the BFR Blog team, thanks very much for taking part in the 2011 survey, read on for the specifics, and watch this space for the 2012 Weil Restructuring Outlook Survey, coming soon.
What phrase best describes the economic outlook for 2011?
| “1929 All Over Again” | 0.8% |
| “Double-Dip Recession” | 4.8% |
| “Stag-Flation” | 9.6% |
| “Flat is the New Normal” | 33.6% |
| “Jobless Recovery” | 33.6% |
| “Steady As She Grows” | 17.6% |
| “Party Like It’s 1999” | 0.0% |
There was no right or wrong answer to this question, but in our judgment the vast majority of respondents picked a choice that fit 2011 in one way or another. We had some economic growth by the numbers (in the United States), but it didn’t feel like we were moving forward due to all the ups and downs and our sense is that in early 2012 we stand at pretty much the same place we were in early 2011. “Jobless Recovery” sums it up on the employment front. And even the one respondent who thought we’d be staring down 1929 all over again gets an honorable mention because the European debt crisis looked downright 1929-ish from time to time during 2011.
How many super-mega chapter 11 cases (assets greater than $1 billion) will file in 2011?
Here’s what people said…
| None | 0.0% |
| 1-10 | 56.5% |
| 11-20 | 34.7% |
| 21-30 | 8.9% |
| 31-40 | 0.0% |
| Greater than 40 | 0.0% |
Though the first six months of 2011, it was looking like a slow year for jumbo chapter 11 cases with only two filings (Borders and Terrestar). A late surge in filings turned things around though, with six of the largest bankruptcies of 2011 filing in the last quarter, and we ended the year with ten cases involving companies listing more than $1 billion in assets:
| No. | Debtor | Assets | Filing Date |
| 1. | MF Global Holdings | $40.541bn | October 31 |
| 2. | AMR Corp. | $25.088bn | November 29 |
| 3. | Dynegy Holdings | $9.949bn | November 7 |
| 4. | PMI Group | $4.219bn | November 23 |
| 5. | NewPage Corp. | $3.512bn | September 7 |
| 6. | Integra Bank Corp. | $2.421bn | July 30 |
| 7. | General Maritime Corp. | $1.782bn | November 17 |
| 8. | Borders Group | $1.425bn | February 16 |
| 9. | Terrestar Corp. | $1.376bn | February 16 |
| 10. | Lee Enterprises | $1.15bn | December 12 |
| 11. | Nebraska Book Company | $657m | June 27 |
| 12. | Seahawk Drilling | $504m | February 11 |
In addition, there was one private company, MSR Resort Golf Course LLC that listed $2.2 billion in assets, bringing the total to 11. So, we’re calling this one a draw and in our view anyone who picked either 1-10 or 11-20 cases – over 90% of respondents – got it right. As a point of comparison, there were 19 super-mega chapter 11 cases in 2010. In the very busy year of 2009, the 20th largest case was Station Casinos with $5.8 billion in assets.
What will the trailing 12-month default rate for non-investment grade corporate debt (junk bonds) be as of December 31, 2011?
Here’s what people said…
| Less than 2% | 11.4% |
| 2-3% | 39.8% |
| 3-5% | 39.8% |
| 5-10% | 6.5% |
| 10-15% | 2.4% |
| Greater than 15% | 0.0% |
According to Standard & Poor’s, the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate ended at 2.05% in December 2011, down from 3.3% in December 2010. Almost 40% of respondents picked the correct range. Or for you glass-half-emptiers out there, more than 60% missed the mark.
What industries will face financial distress in 2011?
We asked you what industries were most likely to face financial distress in 2011. There is no clear way to measure this one, and many companies face distress without resorting to a bankruptcy filing, but here are the results compared to the number of actual bankruptcy filings in those sectors:
| Industry | Here is what people said… |
Number of Filings |
Percentage* |
| Airlines | 18.5% |
1 |
1% |
| Automotive | 5.0% |
0 |
0% |
| Banking and Finance | 30.3% |
4 |
3% |
| Commercial Real Estate | 71.4% |
2 |
2% |
| Energy | 14.3% |
6 |
7% |
| Homebuilding | 49.6% |
4 |
4% |
| Media/Communications | 32.8% |
11 |
12% |
| Retail | 52.9% |
10 |
11% |
| Technology | 5.0% |
3 |
3% |
| Telecommunications | 10.9% |
3 |
3% |
* Chapter 11 and chapter 15 filings with liabilities over $100 million.
To complete the picture above, here’s a breakdown of the major chapter 11 and chapter 15 filings with liabilities over $100 million across all industries during 2011:
| Industry | Chapter 11/15 Debtors with Liabilities Greater than $100 M |
Number of Filings |
| Airlines | AMR Corp. (American Airlines) |
1 |
| Agriculture/Food | Allen Family Foods, Inc. Cagle’s, Inc. |
2 |
| Automotive | None. And a good thing at that, because the automotive industry had it rough for several years before 2011. |
0 |
| Banking and Finance | Irwin Mortgage Corporation MF Global Holdings Ltd. PMI Group, Inc. R.E. Loans, LLC |
4 |
| Commercial Real Estate | Jameson Inns, Inc. November 2005 Land Investors, LLC |
2 |
| Energy | AES Eastern Energy, L.P. AES Thames, LLC Dynegy Holdings, LLC Evergreen Solar, Inc Seahawk Drilling, Inc. Solyndra, LLC |
6 |
| Entertainment/Sports | Dallas Stars Los Angeles Dodgers |
2 |
| Insurance | New Stream Secured Capital, Inc. Tokio Marine Europe Insurance Limited (Chapter 15) |
2 |
| Health Care, Medical and Pharmaceutical | Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Ch. 15) Clare at Water Tower Graceway Pharmaceuticals LLC Nevada Cancer Institute Otero County Hospital Association, Inc. (d/b/a Gerald Champion Regional Medical Center) Verdugo Mental Health |
6 |
| Homebuilding/Residential Properties | Barnes Bay Development, Ltd. Maguire Group Holdings, Inc RCR Plumbing and Mechanical, Inc. William Lyon Homes |
4 |
| Hospitality and Gaming (New) | 155 East Tropicana, LLC Aliante Gaming, LLC Ambassadors International Indianapolis Downs, LLC MSR Resort Golf Course |
5 |
| Media/Communications/ Publishing |
AR Broadcasting Holdings, Inc. Blockbuster Canada Co. (Ch. 15) Caribe Media, Inc. Inner City Media Corporation Lee Enterprises, Inc. Nebraska Book Company Summit Business Media Holding Company MTB Bridgeport-NY Operating LLC Open Range Communications Inc SP Newsprint Holdings LLC |
11 |
| Miscellaneous | Ahern Rentals, Inc. (Equipment Rental) Delta Petroleum Corporation (Marketer of Petroleum Products) Getty Petroleum Marketing Inc. (Marketer of Petroleum Products) Manistique Papers, Inc. (Recycling) Marco Polo Seatrade B.V. (Vessel Management) PTL Holdings LLC (Trailer Rental/Leasing) |
6 |
| Manufacturing | Blitz U.S.A., Inc Bowe Bell & Howell Holdings, Inc. Chef Solutions Holdings, LLC Constar International Friendly Ice Cream Corporation Hussey Copper Corp. NewPage Corporation Raser Technologies, Inc. The Merit Group, Inc. Vitro SAB de DV (Ch. 15) |
13 |
| Restaurants | Perkins & Marie Callender’s Inc. Real Mex Restaurants, Inc. Sbarro, Inc. SSI Group Holding, Inc. |
4 |
| Retail | Anchor Blue Holdings Appleseed’s Intermediate Holdings, LLC Borders Group, Inc. BP Clothing, LLC DSI Holdings, Co. (Deb Shops, Inc.) Filene’s Basement, LLC Harry & David Holdings, Inc. Nebraska Book Co. Robb & Stucky Limited LLP Ultimate Acquisition Partners |
10 |
| Personal Services | Jackson Hewitt Tax Services JK Harris and Company, LLC |
2 |
| Technology | Alexander Gallo Holdings, LLC Hartford Computer Hardware, Inc. ShengdaTech, Inc. |
3 |
| Telecommunications | Satelites Mexicanos, S.A. Qualteq, Inc., d/b/a VCT New Jersey, Inc. TerreStar Corporation |
3 |
| Transportation | ArchBrook Laguna LLC Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line, Inc. Baytown Navigation Inc. General Maritime Corporation Omega Navigation Enterprises, LLC Trailer Bridge, Inc. |
6 |
The big surprise here was that there were not more large chapter 11 filings in the commercial real estate sector. The industry is still in distress, but the data suggest that out-of-court workouts, “amend and extend” transactions, consensual deed-in-lieu deals and traditional foreclosures are allowing commercial real estate borrowers to avoid bankruptcy.
What will the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price be on December 30, 2011?
Here’s what people said…
| Less than 9,000 | 1.6% |
| 9,001 to 10,000 | 1.6% |
| 10,001 to 11,000 | 10.5% |
| 11,001 to 12,000 | 29.0% |
| 12,001 to 13,000 | 50.8% |
| 13,001 to 14,000 | 5.6% |
| Above 14,000 | 0.8% |
After jitters caused by declining economic numbers, the downgrade of U.S. debt, and European sovereign debt concerns, the Dow closed the out 2011 up around 6%, ending the year at 12,217. Just over half of our respondents called this one correctly!
What will the yield on a 10-year US Treasury note be on December 30, 2011?
Here’s what people said…
| Below 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.0 to 2.5% | 1.6% |
| 2.5 to 3.0% | 5.6% |
| 3.0 to 3.5% | 16.9% |
| 3.5 to 4.0% | 42.7% |
| 4.0 to 4.5% | 28.2% |
| 4.5 to 5.0 % | 3.2% |
| Above 5.0% | 1.6% |
At December 30, 2011, the yield on the 10-year T-bill stood at 1.89%. Yep, you read that right. Even after the controversial downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, this bellwether interest rate continued to fall and ended the year under 2%. Absolutely everyone missed this prediction, and most missed it by a wide margin with over 90% of our respondents predicting that the yield would be 3% or greater and more than 75% forecasting 3.5% or higher.
Closing Arguments. . .
In addition to our questions, we also asked survey responders to provide their own commentary on what lies ahead for 2011. There were a variety of responses, and all were right in one way or another, but one stands out for its prescience, pointing out that the “wild card” for 2011 would be “sovereign debt and whether the huge worldwide government deficits may continue to be financed at reasonably low interest rates.” Bravo. You can’t get much closer than that. Perhaps 2012 will see some resolution of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the structural and political problems that seem to keep the United States perennially on the edge of crisis.
Got a prediction you think will tell the story of 2012? Hold that thought and come back shortly, when we’ll open the 2012 Weil Restructuring Outlook Survey.